Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-05 103264.405121 108785.079786 114298.679261 120214.796346 126379.401755 132609.910484 139379.275336
2025-10-12 95215.367805 103738.285647 112480.116013 122105.760695 132395.862664 143055.452188 154921.303297
2025-10-19 88907.392055 99481.713110 110557.626771 123001.604143 136570.106120 150893.009561 167132.202764
2025-10-26 83553.273866 95619.955548 108484.086149 123182.221391 139472.844817 156937.180809 177036.714750
2025-11-02 79369.993049 92642.910795 107012.703011 123672.219196 142398.557227 162741.354268 186453.487219
2025-11-09 75488.636655 89711.135376 105325.889851 123668.400592 144548.547708 167500.142020 194556.817395
2025-11-16 72867.744835 88015.588260 104857.234382 124875.506278 147921.175939 173519.404036 203998.171710
2025-11-23 69751.276429 85572.749059 103376.290913 124776.071671 149675.590822 177606.348907 211174.044249
2025-11-30 67982.679580 84589.444765 103481.281961 126419.283175 153364.306052 183856.133160 220807.027063
2025-12-07 66055.310415 83314.751506 103155.125734 127477.728145 156309.326415 189208.352494 229389.522743
2025-12-14 63716.046677 81444.053847 102032.749329 127510.966406 157979.715807 193027.882628 236158.450473
2025-12-21 61724.181201 79908.090692 101232.802070 127857.619697 159963.280249 197174.844246 243292.835039
2025-12-28 60716.004086 79550.588658 101841.338174 129905.039725 164009.134991 203815.918154 253474.812263
2026-01-04 59555.105241 78956.812632 102126.255589 131535.212275 167545.630058 209866.154586 262997.908215
2026-01-11 58086.410591 77921.199942 101820.560591 132402.102836 170129.030178 214766.344860 271157.564138
2026-01-18 56365.776247 76506.567295 100991.739322 132575.144088 171826.897500 218577.632021 278002.301361
2026-01-25 54910.738836 75377.609007 100472.535881 133091.367474 173916.033856 222847.489539 285406.381826
2026-02-01 53290.840746 73983.422973 99571.942312 133086.394820 175325.071089 226267.177447 291770.249831
2026-02-08 52349.958232 73434.226267 99711.398684 134368.017096 178324.194844 231638.169086 300547.402518
2026-02-15 50833.143230 72084.936701 98787.932646 134262.387690 179553.481107 234809.243984 306612.100801
2026-02-22 50206.720216 71885.742160 99323.097320 136007.102593 183115.014960 240883.570463 316304.940775
2026-03-01 49344.118206 71343.208567 99389.742475 137130.803814 185879.612046 245969.359361 324790.563659
2026-03-08 48060.596307 70198.922765 98638.641103 137166.089262 187232.306482 249275.670572 331054.712088